Dallas Mavericks: Race to the basement: A look at the odds of Mavs landing No. 1 pick in 2018 NBA draft

The Dallas Mavericks have had a tough time adding to the win column this season, which is bad news for their playoff hopes but great news for more ping pong balls and a better draft pick. But are they bad enough? Let’s take a look.

First though, a brief explanation of how this works. If a team misses the playoffs, they are automatically qualified for the lottery. As of January 11th, the Mavs have 0.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s BPI playoff odds. The more games a team loses, the more ping pong balls they get. The top three picks are awarded by the drawing of ping pong balls while 4-14 are sorted by record. The team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. The 2018 NBA draft is the final year of this system before the draft reform kicks in the following year.

Alright. So let’s take a look.

Mavs’ odds to land the top overall pick in the 2018 NBA draft
*All information is as of January 11, 2017

Mavs record: 15-28
Rank in Western Conference: 12th (out of 15)
Rank in NBA: 25th (out of 30)

Chance at the No. 1 pick: 6.3%
Chance at a top three pick: 21.4%

Teams ahead of Mavs in the lottery race (from worst to best): Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Lakers (their pick goes to the Boston Celtics).

Full look at the lottery:

Pick

Team

Record

1.

Atlanta Hawks

11-30

2.

Orlando Magic

12-30

3.

Sacramento Kings

13-27

4.

Memphis Grizzlies

13-27

5.

Los Angeles Lakers (pick goes to Celtics)

13-27

6.

Dallas Mavericks

15-28

7.

Chicago Bulls

15-27

8.

Brooklyn Nets (pick goes to Cavaliers)

15-26

9.

Phoenix Suns

16-26

10.

Charlotte Hornets

15-24

11.

Utah Jazz

17-24

12.

New York Knicks

19-22

13.

Los Angeles Clippers

19-21

14.

Philadelphia 76ers

19-20

Whenever the pick is solidified, who are some names that should be on the Mavs radar? Here are 10 to keep an eye on.

More Mavs draft coverage

Could Mavs find next great big man in 2018 draft? Here are 10 names to watch

Should Mavs draft Trae Young if he’s available? Who’s the better fit: DeAndre Ayton or Mo Bamba?

Who the Mavs could draft this summer, including a potential Dirk replacement

Assessing Dennis Smith Jr’s. progress, and what do Mavericks do if they can draft Trae Young?

5 NBA draft prospects for Mavericks fans to keep their eyes on

Is a top-3 draft pick the best thing that can come out of this Mavericks season?

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